Fay regains tropical storm strength; Cabo Verde low 60% likely to develop

Fay regained tropical storm strength southwest of the Azores late on Wednesday, 23 September, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. In its 11pm AST advisory, NHC placed Fay about 935 miles (1,505 km) west-southwest of the Azores, at 29.8 North, 40.0 West, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h), moving west-southwest at 9 mph (15 km/h). By SXM Today’s calculation from those coordinates, that is about 1,660 miles (2,675 km) from Sint Maarten.

NHC’s 11pm AST advisory lists no coastal watches or warnings in effect and, under hazards affecting land, says “None.” Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles (110 km) from Fay’s centre. NHC expects Fay to keep moving generally west over the next few days and to slow down, with little change in strength for a day or two before it gradually weakens. It forecasts Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday morning, 26 September, and to have dissipated by Sunday evening, 27 September, though it noted that two computer models keep the low going a little longer. NHC’s last forecast position for Fay, for 8pm AST on Saturday, is about 1,380 miles (2,215 km) from Sint Maarten by the same calculation.

In its 8pm AST outlook on Wednesday, NHC said an area of low pressure a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, labelled AL90, has a large area of disorganised showers and thunderstorms. It could become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday, 24 September, or Friday, 25 September, while moving northwestward to northward, NHC said, and strong upper-level winds should end its chance to develop by the weekend. NHC puts the chance of formation at 60 percent within 48 hours and 60 percent within seven days. It said gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding are possible in the Cabo Verde Islands by Friday.