Gumbs says 2027 budget does not include all fiscal risks

The higher budget amount was included to allow for a final requirement above the assumed annual contribution, Gumbs said. She said the 2024 outline agreement has not been amended. Under the arrangement's Peak Facility, an overdraft mechanism for years when regular contributions are insufficient, Sint Maarten guarantees 6.49% of Cg. 500 million, or Cg. 32.45 million. Current calculations show about Cg. 7.756 million could be drawn for Sint Maarten over the facility's 50-year life, she said.

Government has not set up separate insurance for that liability, though it can make voluntary contributions to the Peak Facility. The 2026 budget includes Cg. 6 million in anticipated Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten dividend income, and Gumbs said Government has no indication that this will be insufficient for the arrangement.

Gumbs said the ENNIA commitment should be presented more clearly in the budget. It is listed under projects and activities rather than as a recurring long-term obligation, and Government will change the presentation in the 2027 budget and multi-year estimates for 2028 through 2030.

Several SZV funds are projected to have negative reserves that worsen through 2030 if their structure remains unchanged, Gumbs said. Government has not completed a stress test of faster-than-projected reserve declines, and the Ministry is still compiling and verifying outstanding amounts between Government and SZV before deciding whether the 2027 budget needs a provision. Gumbs also put the projected 2027 closing cash balance at about Cg. 2 million and total loan repayments at Cg. 22 million.